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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 35

Washington Commanders 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 25-C.Thompson ran ob at MIN 8 for 27 yards.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.91 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model