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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 10

Washington Commanders 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(:11) 6-N.Rose 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.24 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model