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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 70

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to DEN 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, touched at DEN 28, RECOVERED by NE-47-J.Hollister at DEN 24. 47-J.Hollister to DEN 24 for no gain (84-I.McKenzie).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model