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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2017-11-12 · 20:30 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NE
63.9%
DEN
36.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Brock Osweiler (DEN) -0.125 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.250 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE on 7 more days rest than DEN
  • NE defense: +0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: NE by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NE

Malcom Brown DT Out Ankle
Marcus Cannon T Out Ankle
Chris Hogan WR Out Shoulder
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Shoulder
Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Concussion
Cassius Marsh DE Questionable Shoulder
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Groin

DEN

Todd Davis LB Questionable Ankle
Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Ankle
Donald Stephenson T Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 41
–
DEN 16

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:43 TD NE (12:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 34-R.Burkhead for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 08:42 FG DEN (8:42) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NE 7 – DEN 3
  • Q1 08:39 TD NE 8-B.McManus kicks 68 yards from DEN 35 to NE -3. 33-D.Lewis for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – DEN 3
  • Q1 05:22 FG DEN (5:22) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NE 14 – DEN 6
  • Q2 13:41 FG NE (13:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 17 – DEN 6
  • Q2 08:51 FG NE (8:51) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 20 – DEN 6
  • Q2 02:40 FG DEN (2:40) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NE 20 – DEN 9
  • Q2 00:31 TD NE (:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 83-D.Allen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-58-V.Miller, Defensive Holding, declined. NE 26 – DEN 9
  • Q3 08:01 TD DEN (8:01) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 88-D.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-21-M.Butler, Defensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NE 27 – DEN 15
  • Q3 04:38 TD NE (4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-D.Lewis up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 33 – DEN 16
  • Q4 09:10 TD NE (9:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe]. NE 40 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:30) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to DEN 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, touched at DEN 28, RECOVERED by NE-47-J.Hollister at DEN 24. 47-J.Hollister to DEN 24 for no gain (84-I.McKenzie).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 89%

    (8:42) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (5:22) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 87%

    (1:32) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle to DEN 20 for 3 yards (51-T.Davis).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (13:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:44) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 34-R.Burkhead, Center-42-C.Kreiter, recovered by DEN-9-R.Dixon at DEN 30. 9-R.Dixon to DEN 30 for no gain (38-B.Bolden).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (8:51) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (2:40) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 23%

    (1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NE 6, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 84%

    (5:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to NE 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 69%

    (:32) 2-B.Hoyer pass short left to 14-B.Cooks to DEN 33 for no gain (29-B.Roby).