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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 10

New England Patriots 17 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.02 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 10, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP