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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 18

Denver Broncos 6 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.03 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model