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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 52

Denver Broncos 16 – New England Patriots 34

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NE 6, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.97 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model