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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 25

New England Patriots 41 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(5:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.35 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model