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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 16 – New England Patriots 41

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to NE 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model