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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 21

Denver Broncos 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.04 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP