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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 23

New England Patriots 14 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle to DEN 20 for 3 yards (51-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.25 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model