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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 90

New York Jets 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:24) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to TB 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Reedy to TB 35 for 3 yards (36-R.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.62 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.88 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP