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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2017-11-12 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NYJ
45.7%
TB
54.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • NYJ on 3 more days rest than TB
  • Wind 16 mph
  • QB edge to NYJ: Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) -0.050 vs Josh McCown (NYJ) -0.055 EPA/dropback (TB starting Ryan Fitzpatrick in place of Jameis Winston)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20
–
TB 21
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NYJ

Matt Forte RB Out Knee
Ed Stinson DT Out Neck
Jonotthan Harrison C Questionable Hand
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Shoulder
Morris Claiborne CB Questionable Foot
ArDarius Stewart WR Questionable Groin
Brian Winters G Questionable Abdomen

TB

William Gholston DE Out Neck
Jameis Winston QB Out right Shoulder
Robert McClain CB Doubtful Hamstring
Demar Dotson T Questionable Hamstring
Brent Grimes CB Questionable Shoulder
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Shoulder
J.R. Sweezy G Questionable Knee
Robert Ayers DE Questionable Ankle
Donovan Smith T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 10
–
TB 15

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:57 FG TB (:57) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. NYJ 0 – TB 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG NYJ (:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – TB 3
  • Q3 10:47 FG TB (10:47) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. NYJ 3 – TB 6
  • Q3 00:33 FG TB (:33) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. NYJ 3 – TB 9
  • Q4 06:10 TD TB (6:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 34-C.Sims III for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-J.Martin]. NYJ 3 – TB 15
  • Q4 00:36 TD NYJ (:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – TB 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:18) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to TB 41, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-T.Brooks.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 18%

    (11:21) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 18%

    (8:58) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to TB 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (:57) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:05) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to TB 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Reedy to 50 for 44 yards (4-L.Edwards).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:46) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to NYJ 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-59-D.Bond.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:24) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to TB 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Reedy to TB 35 for 3 yards (36-R.Robinson).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:32) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 13 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 68%

    (10:47) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:53) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to TB 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-54-B.Carter.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

    (8:27) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to NYJ 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:18) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to TB 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Reedy MUFFS catch, touched at TB 24, and recovers at TB 25. 18-B.Reedy to TB 26 for 1 yard (23-T.Brooks).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:24) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to NYJ 32, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 30 for -2 yards (26-J.Robinson).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 89%

    (:33) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:42) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to TB 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-95-J.Martin.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:45) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep middle to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins ran ob at TB 46 for 28 yards (29-R.Smith).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 81%

    (2:34) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass incomplete deep right to 11-R.Anderson.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to NYJ 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.