4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.48 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP