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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Jets 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:53) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to TB 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-54-B.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model