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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(8:27) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to NYJ 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model