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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 82

New York Jets 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to TB 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Reedy MUFFS catch, touched at TB 24, and recovers at TB 25. 18-B.Reedy to TB 26 for 1 yard (23-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.49 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP