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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.11 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 51, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP