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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 72

New York Jets 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(13:42) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to TB 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-95-J.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model