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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 74

New York Jets 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15

What Actually Happened

(3:45) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep middle to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins ran ob at TB 46 for 28 yards (29-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.48 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.18 EP