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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 25

New York Jets 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass incomplete deep right to 11-R.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP