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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 51

New York Jets 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:58) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to TB 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -2.24 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP