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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model