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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 43

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 2-A.Lee punts 34 yards to SEA 9, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-36-B.Baker.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP