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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Thursday 2017-11-09 · 20:25 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

SEA
61.5%
ARI
38.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Drew Stanton (ARI): -0.280 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22
–
ARI 18
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

SEA

Luke Joeckel G Out Knee
Eddie Lacy RB Out Groin
Marcus Smith DE Out Concussion
Earl Thomas S Doubtful Hamstring
D.J. Alexander LB Questionable Ankle
Paul Richardson WR Questionable Groin
Sheldon Richardson DT Questionable Oblique
Richard Sherman CB Questionable Achilles

ARI

Brittan Golden WR Questionable Groin
Chad Williams WR Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 22
–
ARI 16

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:11 TD SEA (5:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-J.Graham for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-K.Dansby]. ARI-27-T.Branch was injured during the play. SEA 6 – ARI 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD ARI (15:00) 5-D.Stanton pass short left to 84-J.Gresham for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – ARI 6
  • Q2 11:00 SAF SEA (11:00) 23-A.Peterson up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (31-K.Chancellor). SEA 9 – ARI 7
  • Q2 01:56 FG SEA (1:56) 7-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 12 – ARI 7
  • Q2 00:07 FG SEA (:07) 7-B.Walsh 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 15 – ARI 7
  • Q3 08:37 FG ARI (8:37) 4-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. SEA 15 – ARI 10
  • Q4 12:54 TD SEA (12:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-J.Graham for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 21 – ARI 10
  • Q4 00:23 TD ARI (:23) 38-A.Ellington up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 22 – ARI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:19) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to ARI 40, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at SEA 48 for 12 yards (69-T.Ott).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 25%

    (12:09) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to ARI 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 33-K.Williams. PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at ARI 8.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:19) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to SEA 34, Center-49-J.Drescher. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 49 for 15 yards (36-B.Baker).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:11) 9-J.Ryan punts 57 yards to ARI 2, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at ARI 15 for 13 yards (52-T.Garvin). PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at ARI 2.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 18 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:16) 9-J.Ryan punts 52 yards to ARI 37, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams to SEA 47 for 16 yards (57-M.Wilhoite).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 44%

    (7:45) 2-A.Lee punts 34 yards to SEA 9, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-36-B.Baker.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (1:56) 7-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 57%

    (:52) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass incomplete deep left to 14-J.Nelson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 16 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 84%

    (:07) 7-B.Walsh 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 86%

    (8:37) 4-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 19 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:13) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to ARI 28, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 33-K.Williams. PENALTY on ARI-96-K.Martin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 50%

    (3:20) 2-A.Lee punts 32 yards to SEA 9, Center-49-J.Drescher, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:17) 9-J.Ryan punts 51 yards to ARI 37, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at ARI 46 for 9 yards (57-M.Wilhoite).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:48) 2-A.Lee punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Drescher, Touchback.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:54) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to SEA 32, Center-49-J.Drescher. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for 3 yards (57-J.Bynes).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:37) 9-J.Ryan punts 56 yards to ARI 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams to ARI 19 for 10 yards (58-D.Alexander).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 39%

    (6:43) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald pushed ob at SEA 31 for 14 yards (20-J.Lane).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (4:20) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass incomplete short middle to 13-Ja.Brown (30-B.McDougald).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:40) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to ARI 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams to ARI 39 for 14 yards (58-D.Alexander).