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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 12

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass incomplete deep left to 14-J.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP