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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 25

Seattle Seahawks 12 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) 7-B.Walsh 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.97 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model