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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 15 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to ARI 28, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 33-K.Williams. PENALTY on ARI-96-K.Martin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.66 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model