Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 88

Seattle Seahawks 15 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(2:17) 9-J.Ryan punts 51 yards to ARI 37, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at ARI 46 for 9 yards (57-M.Wilhoite).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.60 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 88, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model