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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 15

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 2-A.Lee punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.03 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model