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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 22

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to SEA 32, Center-49-J.Drescher. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for 3 yards (57-J.Bynes).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model