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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 22

What Actually Happened

(6:43) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald pushed ob at SEA 31 for 14 yards (20-J.Lane).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.87 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model