4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 22

What Actually Happened

(4:20) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass incomplete short middle to 13-Ja.Brown (30-B.McDougald).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP