Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 22 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(2:40) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to ARI 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams to ARI 39 for 14 yards (58-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.00 EP
54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model