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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 2-A.Lee punts 31 yards to HOU 9, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel. PENALTY on ARI-49-J.Drescher, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model