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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
@
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

ARI
38.9%
HOU
61.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Tom Savage (HOU) -0.299 vs Blaine Gabbert (ARI) -0.171 EPA/dropback (ARI starting Blaine Gabbert in place of Drew Stanton)
  • HOU defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI on 3 more days rest than HOU

Predicted Final Score

ARI 18
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: HOU by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

ARI

Corey Peters DT Out Ankle
John Brown WR Questionable Back
A.Q. Shipley C Questionable Shoulder
Drew Stanton QB Questionable Knee
John Wetzel T Questionable Back

HOU

Dylan Cole LB Out Hamstring
Julien Davenport T Out Shoulder
Will Fuller WR Out Ribs
Alfred Blue RB Questionable Hamstring
Greg Mancz C Questionable Knee
Chris Thompson WR Questionable Knee
Joel Heath DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 21
–
HOU 31

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:20 TD HOU (14:20) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass short right to 26-L.Miller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-F.Rucker]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ARI 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 07:27 TD ARI (7:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass deep left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – HOU 7
  • Q2 02:00 TD ARI (2:00) 7-B.Gabbert pass short right to 86-R.Seals-Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – HOU 7
  • Q2 00:09 FG HOU (:09) 7-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. ARI 14 – HOU 10
  • Q3 11:09 TD HOU (11:09) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 14 – HOU 16
  • Q3 04:48 TD ARI (4:48) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass deep left to 86-R.Seals-Jones for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – HOU 17
  • Q4 13:18 TD HOU (13:18) 27-D.Foreman left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 21 – HOU 23
  • Q4 06:26 TD HOU (6:26) (Shotgun) 27-D.Foreman right end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-27-D.Foreman was injured during the play. He is Out. ARI 21 – HOU 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 61%

    (11:04) 2-A.Lee punts 37 yards to HOU 1, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-36-B.Baker. Houston challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1 at 10:50.)

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:21) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to ARI 42, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:17) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to HOU 11, Center-49-J.Drescher, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 56%

    (9:03) 2-A.Lee punts 31 yards to HOU 9, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel. PENALTY on ARI-49-J.Drescher, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 9.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to ARI 40, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:40) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to HOU 7, Center-49-J.Drescher. 12-B.Ellington pushed ob at HOU 16 for 9 yards (10-B.Golden).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 94%

    (:09) 7-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (9:32) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to HOU 6, Center-49-J.Drescher. 12-B.Ellington to HOU 21 for 15 yards (36-B.Baker). PENALTY on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at HOU 6.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:38) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to ARI 39, Center-46-J.Weeks. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at ARI 44 for 5 yards (23-K.Drummond). PENALTY on HOU, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 44.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:17) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to HOU 7, Center-49-J.Drescher. 12-B.Ellington to HOU 10 for 3 yards (30-R.Ford, 86-R.Seals-Jones). PENALTY on HOU-50-B.Heeney, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at HOU 7.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:49) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to ARI 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 33-K.Williams to ARI 23 for 2 yards (50-B.Heeney; 41-Z.Cunningham). PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 23.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (6:33) 23-A.Peterson left tackle to ARI 34 for -1 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 90-J.Clowney).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 27%

    (3:09) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:20) 9-S.Lechler punts 36 yards to ARI 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-52-B.Peters.