Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 81

Houston Texans 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(6:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to ARI 40, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model