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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 54

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to HOU 7, Center-49-J.Drescher. 12-B.Ellington pushed ob at HOU 16 for 9 yards (10-B.Golden).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model