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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 16

Houston Texans 7 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(:09) 7-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.17 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model