Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 94

Houston Texans 17 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to ARI 39, Center-46-J.Weeks. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at ARI 44 for 5 yards (23-K.Drummond). PENALTY on HOU, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.36 EP
57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 94, worth -5.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model