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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 52

Houston Texans 31 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.81 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP