Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 85

Houston Texans 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(8:21) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to ARI 42, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.88 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 85, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model