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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 48

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 4-S.Koch punts 29 yards to GB 19, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.53 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.91 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model