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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🥶 Cold Spread -2.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

BAL
41.9%
GB
58.1%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BAL on 7 more days rest than GB
  • BAL defense: -0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Brett Hundley (GB) -0.165 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.132 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BAL 18
–
GB 20
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

BAL

Ronnie Stanley T Doubtful Concussion
Nick Boyle TE Questionable Toe
Michael Campanaro WR Questionable Shoulder
Chuck Clark S Questionable Thigh
Terrance West RB Questionable Calf
Tim Williams LB Questionable Thigh
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Achilles

GB

Bryan Bulaga T Out Knee
Morgan Burnett S Out Groin
Aaron Jones RB Out Knee
Ty Montgomery RB Out Ribs
Ahmad Brooks LB Questionable Back
Quinton Dial DT Questionable Chest
Kevin King CB Questionable Shoulder
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 23
–
GB 0

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 FG BAL (15:00) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – GB 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG BAL (:03) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – GB 0
  • Q3 13:14 TD BAL (13:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 17-M.Wallace for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-23-D.Randall was injured during the play. BAL 12 – GB 0
  • Q4 04:50 FG BAL (4:50) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 16 – GB 0
  • Q4 02:17 TD BAL (2:17) 34-A.Collins left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 22 – GB 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 42%

    (9:40) 34-A.Collins right guard to GB 36 for 5 yards (50-B.Martinez).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (15:00) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Williams up the middle to GB 47 for 2 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%

    (9:55) 4-S.Koch punts 29 yards to GB 19, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:27) 8-J.Vogel punts 38 yards to BAL 35, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 87%

    (:03) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 42%

    (9:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley sacked at BAL 49 for -8 yards (69-W.Henry).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 17%

    (8:16) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. Baltimore challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:04.)

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 36%

    (5:02) 8-J.Vogel punts 32 yards to BAL 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:14) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to GB 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Davis to GB 40 for 9 yards (88-V.Mayle). PENALTY on BAL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at GB 40.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 56%

    (1:25) 30-J.Williams right guard to BAL 36 for no gain (97-M.Pierce).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 23%

    (13:45) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to GB 6, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:06) 8-J.Vogel punts 47 yards to BAL 33, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 23%

    (7:50) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to GB 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (4:50) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:44) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley sacked at GB 30 for -12 yards (55-T.Suggs).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 16 at the 36 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 56%

    (2:34) 4-S.Koch punts 30 yards to GB 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-G.Allison MUFFS catch, touched at GB 6, ball out of bounds at GB 6.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:39) 8-J.Vogel punts 43 yards to BAL 23, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.