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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 21

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:03) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.60 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model