Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 52

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. Baltimore challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:04.)

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.86 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.95 EP

KICK -2.07 EP

17% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
83% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model