4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 8-J.Vogel punts 32 yards to BAL 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model