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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 36

Green Bay Packers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 30-J.Williams right guard to BAL 36 for no gain (97-M.Pierce).

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.71 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model