Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(11:06) 8-J.Vogel punts 47 yards to BAL 33, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.63 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model