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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 5

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.98 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP